10th consecutive year: Japan's tumbling births hit record low

by MITSUMASA INOUE
February 26, 2026

The decline in births in Japan is occurring faster than anticipated. (Asahi Photo

The number of births in Japan fell for the 10th consecutive year in 2025, hitting a record low of 705,809, according to preliminary government data released on Feb. 26.

The 2.1 percent drop from the previous year underscores the nation’s demographic crisis is unfolding much faster than official projections.

The figures, released by the health ministry, include foreign nationals living in Japan and Japanese citizens born abroad.

The country’s population decline is starkly illustrated by its “natural decrease”—the gap between deaths and births—which widened to a record 899,845.

CRISIS MOVING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE

A 2023 projection by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, based on the 2020 census, estimated 774,000 births for 2025.

It had predicted the number of births would not fall to the 701,000 level until 2042--nearly two decades from now.

The birthrate has been in freefall since dropping below 1 million in 2017.

In 2025, only Tokyo and Ishikawa prefectures bucked the national trend with slight increases in births.

MARRIAGE DATA OFFERS FAINT HOPE

While the 2.1 percent drop was smaller than the 2.5 to 5.5 percent annual declines seen over the past nine years, a ministry official cautioned against optimism.

“It is too early to say if this signals a slowdown,” the official said, citing a lack of evidence. “We view the situation where the declining birthrate shows no signs of slowing as a serious matter.”

The official attributed the downward trend to “a complex mix of factors, including a shrinking youth population, delayed marriages, and individual circumstances.”

However, the official pointed to a potential bright spot: The number of marriages rose 1.1 percent to 505,656, the second straight year of growth.

“We will continue to closely monitor marriage trends,” the official said.

The health ministry is scheduled to release figures in June for only Japanese children born within the country.

An independent estimate by The Asahi Shimbun at the end of last year, which used a government calculation method, projects that number to be around 668,000 for 2025.