Trump is bringing in enough revenue from tariffs to have a serious impact on the $37 trillion national debt, budget watchdog says

Since his return to the White House, Donald Trump has unleashed a wave of “reciprocal tariffs” on almost every major U.S. trading partner Evan Vucci photo

by Nick Lichtenberg
August 13, 2025

President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs are raking in unprecedented sums for the federal government—so much, in fact, that a top budget watchdog says the revenue rivals the impact of creating a brand-new payroll tax or slashing the entire military budget by nearly one-fifth. (These are rough estimates, to be sure, conveyed to communicate the magnitude of the tariffs, not precise contributions to the budget.) But can these massive cash flows, already topping tens of billions monthly, truly put a dent in America’s $37 trillion national debt?

Actually, yes, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), which alternately calls the revenue being generated by the tariffs to be “meaningful” and “significant.”

Since his return to the White House, Trump has unleashed a wave of “reciprocal tariffs” on almost every major U.S. trading partner. Roughly $25 billion was collected in July, the CRFB calculated, more than triple the amount from late last year, and surely a fraction of what forthcoming months will yield. The D.C.-based think tank estimates the tariffs will bring in an estimated $1.3 trillion of net new revenue through the end of Trump’s current term and $2.8 trillion through 2034. That represents a $600 billion leap forward from the tariffs in effect as of May.

For context, in fiscal 2025 so far, tariffs have accounted for 2.7% of all federal revenue—more than double typical levels. Some analysts project that figure climbing as high as 5% if current policies remain in place.

Impact on the national debt

In theory, pouring $2.8 trillion from tariffs into the national coffers could markedly slow the growth of the federal debt. Congressional Budget Office figures and CRFB models suggest that, if kept permanent, Trump’s tariff regime could reduce the deficit by up to $2.8 trillion in the next decade. “The recent tariff increases are likely to meaningfully reduce deficits if allowed to remain in effect or replaced on a pay-as-you-go…basis,” the CRFB wrote in its analysis.

Experts still caution the impact, though real, remains limited when compared to the sheer scale of the U.S. government’s finances: a whopping $37 trillion. Even with historic tariff gains, these revenues represent only a fraction of total federal income—nowhere near enough to replace income taxes or close the debt gap. In fact, during fiscal year 2025, income taxes and payroll taxes covered over three-quarters of federal revenue.

Then there’s the question of who is really paying the price, or as Trump likes to put it, who is eating the tariffs. The government is getting revenue from whom, exactly?