Well, looks like another hurricane is headed this way. Everybody knows to check the National Hurricane Center for forecast discussions and graphics. These guys do a good job. When you read their discussions they talk about a bunch of different models which give differing storm tracks. These model results are put together in what is called a spaghetti model. It is not called that because it is a pasta dish or a Clint Eastwood movie. It looks like spaghetti because the lines do not fall on top of each other. Each colored line is the result of one model. This particular one has the models in reasonable agreement. In the case of Hurricane Harvey, the models were all over the place. Remember a model is just a model. All you climate chicken littles out there need to remember that. Models diverge and models are not predictions. If you trust one single model you are a fool. The famous hockey stick model of global warming was just that, a single prediction that you would never take as gospel unless you have a liberal arts degree or are prone to taking what others tell you as gospel. God gave you a brain, so use it.

Now, here is what is interesting. The green dots are the National Hurricane Center predictions. These guys only forecast out 5 days because they actually have science or engineering degrees and understand that long term predictions are, by definition, wrong. The leftmost dot is the 5 day predicted position of Irma. They are going right down the middle of the models with a little body English from their experience with hurricanes. In the next 24 hours their predictions might indicate a sharp northward turn if the models don't change (which they will). They have not mentioned anything in the discussions that might tip their hand about six or seven days out. These guys are pros. It will be interesting to see what happens. If you don't find this interesting you must remember that I am easily amused.