No cheers for Kishida at home this time either

Scoring diplomatic points is not enough to save his scandal-ridden LDP administration with turned-off voters

by ERIK LENHART AND MICHAEL TKACIK
JULY 23, 2024

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Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida looks wobbly. Image: Twitter Screengrab
Recently, Japan has made significant headway on cooperation with like-minded countries to counter Chinese hegemonic aspirations in the Western Pacific and to oppose Russo-North Korean strategic alignment.

First, on July 8, 2024, during the second Japan-Philippines Foreign and Defense Ministerial Meeting, both US allies signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement and also confirmed that the two countries would continue and strengthen cooperation in capacity building, including defense equipment and technical cooperation, as well as agreeing to Official Security Assistance.

Island chain strategy. Map: ResearchGate

Kishida, following in the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s footsteps, continues to deepen Japan’s relations with the Philippines.

Both Japan and the US see the Philippines as an important part of the First Island Chain and are actively boosting their bilateral and trilateral security cooperation to counter Chinese hegemonic aspirations in the Western Pacific.

Second, on the sidelines of the NATO Washington summit (July 9–11, 2024), Kishida repeated his mantra that the security of Europe and that of the Indo-Pacific are inseparable.

Together with the US and the other IP4 countries (Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea), he expressed concern over Russo-North Korean military cooperation, which violates a number of UN Security Council resolutions.

Kishida, in separate meetings with Yoon and Biden, pledged to strengthen their trilateral cooperation, aiming to secure peace in East Asia. Beside Russia and North Korea, China also received its share of criticism for fueling the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine.

Both China and North Korea, as expected, blasted back in their usual manner at NATO. China Daily stated that the declaration’s language is provocative and is based on the “false proposition” that China bears responsibility for the prolonged conflict. The North Korean foreign ministry denounced the declaration as a “confrontational program” that incites a military confrontation on a global scale.

Third, during his visit to Germany on July 12, 2024, Kishida and Chancellor Scholz agreed to establish a new framework for discussing issues related to economic security. This framework will include building supply chains for critical minerals and developing and producing semiconductors.

Additionally, an accord on the provision of supplies and services between Japan’s and Germany’s armed forces took effect. The visit further deepened Japanese-German bilateral ties and followed up on their inter-governmental talks involving their top leaders and cabinet ministers last year. Kishida and Scholz confirmed that the second round of those talks will be held in Germany next year.

Trouble at home

As during his White House visit in April, Kishida gained meaningful points for Japan abroad in July. His domestic popularity, however, hovering around 20%, shows little sign of recovery.

His administration and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidency have been plagued with scandals from the beginning. The most recent major scandal involving the Defense Ministry centers around 113 instances of improper use of designated state secrets. Past prominent scandals lingering in the public memory include the LDP members’ involvement with the Unification Church and the slush funds scandal involving most of the LDP factions.

The third consecutive victory on July 7 of the incumbent governor of Tokyo, Yuriko Koike, supported by the LDP, its coalition partner Komeito, and Tomin First no Kai (Tokyo First, a regional party originally founded by Koike), was overshadowed by the poor LDP performance in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly by-elections, securing only two of nine seats. While Kishida may be in trouble, the by-election of the assembly can hardly be interpreted as an LDP bellwether for the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2025.

The Japanese opposition remains fractured and inept. Renho, a former upper house lawmaker, backed by three leftist parties in the opposition camp in national politics — the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the Japanese Communist Party, and the Social Democratic Party — ended up distantly third.

The strongest opposition right-wing party, Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japanese Innovation Party), didn’t throw its support behind any of the three top contenders in the Tokyo gubernatorial race. The independent candidate Shinji Ishimaru, a former mayor of Akitakata in Hiroshima Prefecture, took second place. The rise in popularity of charismatic independents such as Shinji Ishimaru could pose more of a challenge for the LDP on a regional and eventually national level.

Kishida, by dissolving the LDP factions, strained his relations with LDP Vice President Taro Aso and Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi. His predecessor, Yoshihide Suga, who is unaffiliated with any LDP faction and has distanced himself from Kishida’s administration, shows more signs of political activity as the LDP presidential election, scheduled for September, gets closer.

As the summer temperatures rise in Tokyo, the water may soon boil around Kishida. It remains a question as to whom LDP leaders such as Suga, Motegi, and Aso will lend their support in the upcoming presidential race. One thing is clear: it will be very difficult for Kishida to secure the majority with the LDP and continue as its president and prime minister of Japan.