.
How to Respond to China’s Tactics in the South China Sea

Beijing is testing the U.S.-Philippines alliance, and a new strategy is needed.

by Derek Grossman

MAY 29, 2024

The odds of armed conflict in the South China Sea are high and rising. China’s relentless assertiveness against the Philippines—harassing ships inside Manila’s internationally recognized Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), most notably at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal—has led to a situation where war in the South China Sea now seems more likely than at any other Indo-Pacific flash point, including the Taiwan Strait and Korean Peninsula.

Derek Grossman is a senior defense analyst at the Rand Corp., an adjunct professor at the University of Southern California, and a former daily intelligence briefer to the U.S. assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific security affairs. Twitter: @DerekJGrossman

A white ship cuts across the water in a stretch of open ocean. Black lettering on its hull says "China Coast Guard." A smaller Philippine Caost Guard ship is visible sailing away in the distance and to the right.

Why China Is Stepping Up Its Maritime Attacks on the Philippines

Beijing’s aggression threatens to disrupt friendshoring operations in the region.

A woman with short hair and wearing camouflage fatigues is seen from behind as she speaks into a phone receiver. As she speaks she looks through the window in front of her, through which the surface of the ocean is visible, with another boat floating nearby.

China Brings Out the Big Guns in the South China Sea

The Chinese navy and maritime militia are using water cannons, laser dazzlers, and harassing tactics to try to push smaller nations out of the area.

USA government handout photo